The global shipbuilding industry is undergoing a profound cyclical transformation. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, global new shipbuilding orders reached 191 million Modified Gross Tonnes (CGT), setting a 17 year high and accounting for approximately 17% of the existing fleet. This number declares that the global shipbuilding market has entered a new long-term upward channel.
Order explosion: Oil tankers lead the way, ship types begin to rotate. In the first quarter of 2026, global new ship orders increased by 40% year-on-year to 17.6 million CGT. Oil tankers are the biggest driving force – orders have tripled year-on-year, with new orders for 32.55 million deadweight tons (167 vessels) signed in the first quarter, the highest level since the second quarter of 2017. Container ships remain the main force for new signings, but demand for feeder container ships is heating up, and LNG ship orders have jumped from 200000 CGT in April to 1.2 million CGT. The ship type rotation has already started – container ship orders remain stable at high levels, while oil tankers and bulk carriers continue to rise.
China led: an unshakable market position. In the first quarter of 2026, China’s shipbuilding completion reached 15.68 million deadweight tons (a year-on-year increase of 46%), new orders reached 59.53 million deadweight tons (a year-on-year increase of 195.2%), and orders held reached 322.3 million deadweight tons (a year-on-year increase of 43.6%), accounting for 57.3%, 84.9%, and 69.8% of the global total, respectively. Among the 18 major ship types worldwide, China has 15 new orders ranking first in the world. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China undertook 64.2% of global new ship orders, and its market share ranked first in the world for 16 consecutive years.
South Korea ranks second with a share of about 20%, while Japan’s new orders in the first quarter plummeted by 83% year-on-year, with its share dropping to only 1%, setting a record low since 1996.
Green Transformation: An Irreversible Industrial Wave. By 2025, alternative fuel vessels will account for 46% of newly signed orders. In the first four months of 2026, there were 181 orders for alternative fuel ships with a total tonnage of 15.2 million, accounting for 28% of new ship orders. The LNG powered ship has the largest volume (116 ships with a total tonnage of 12.9 million), and is equipped with batteries/hybrid power LPG、 Methanol and ethane powered ships are also accelerating their expansion. There are 2945 alternative fuel vessels in operation worldwide, with 44.2% of orders held for alternative fuel vessels.
China’s advantage in the green ship track continues to expand – in April 2026, it received 29 orders for alternative fuels and 1.227 million CGT in a single month, with a global market share of 42.35%, ranking first. The methanol dual fuel powered intelligent ultra large oil tanker “Kaituo” has been delivered in December 2025, reducing carbon emissions by more than 90% compared to conventional fuel vessels.
Challenges coexist: production capacity, labor force, and uncertainty. The number of active shipyards worldwide has decreased from a peak of 1031 in 2008 to 368, resulting in a significant clearance of production capacity. The coverage of handheld orders has exceeded 4 years, and some shipyards have scheduled for after 2030. It is difficult for regions outside of China to restart and expand production capacity on a large scale – Japan and South Korea have a large shortage of manpower and high steel plate prices, making expansion difficult.
